Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - New Mexico Business Weekly:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wright State and author of the said unemployment increases will continue at theier accelerated pace into the third quarter of this The Dayton MetropolitanStatisticalp Area, which includes Montgomery, Greene, Miami and Preblwe counties, is projected to lose 6,000 to 7,009 jobs in the third quarter. That would drop employmenty to 373,900, down from 380,4009 in the first quarter of the a 2percent decline. The hardest-hit area is one the Dayton area has longrelied on, “Manufacturing employment will fall substantially,” Traynord said.
Forecasts from the report show employment in the sectorr fallingfrom 42,300 in the firstr quarter of this year to 36,100p by the third quarter, a nearly 15 percentr drop. Durable goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waitiny to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employmenty are also expectedto decrease. Retail employmentf is expected to dropto 39,1090 by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the firstg quarter, a 2 percenyt drop.
Service employment, which included financial service, business service, utilities and leisure service, is projecte d to decrease to 324,200 by the third down from 326,700 in the firsy quarter, a nearly 1 percenrt decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasang time forthe region,” Traynor said. Construction employmenft is expected to rise as a part ofseasonak employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the first but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time perioc last year. One area of employment that isn’g expected to be hit hard is health care.
In fact, Traynor said he expects healtuh care to add some jobs by thethirs quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the firsrt quarter. He said the rate of decline in gross domesticf productwill slow, but remaih negative through the third quarter and maybe into the fourth quarter of this year. Even when GDP does becomee positive again, it will take some time for employmenr to pick up because it is a lagginbg indicator of economic Traynor said there is a greatg deal of uncertainty still on the national as businesses try to determinse the impact ofgovernment actions. Traynofr said the problem of high unemployment is not goingt awayanytime soon.
“Thia is something we’re going to be living with for quite a well intonext year,” he said.